Here are the most popular types of NFL antepost and match bets.
A) NFL Antepost Bets
- First Draft Pick
Betting on which player from college football (i.e. NCAA) or outside the NFL will be the first ‘pick’, obviously by the team with the first right to call.
- Top Scorer Regular Season
You must bet on the player who will score the most points, by whatever means, in the 16 regular season games.
- Playoff Qualification
Bets must be placed on whether or not a team qualifies for the post-season, which consists of the round of 16 (best 4 are exempt), quarter-finals, semi-finals and the Super Bowl. All are dry games, at the home of the best placed team, with the exception of the Super Bowl which is played on a neutral field. Of the 32 NFL teams, therefore, only 12 make the playoffs.
- Head To Head
Bets must be placed on which of the two teams in the betting will have the better record in terms of wins and losses at the end of the regular season.
- Mvp Winner
Betting on the player who will win the MVP award for the season, i.e. the best player in the NFL.
- Winning Team
You must predict which team will win the NFL, i.e. the team that will go all the way in the playoffs and win the Super Bowl.
B) NFL Games Bets
- Match Winner
You must predict which of the two teams will win the game, including overtime (there is no tie in NFL football).
- Quarter Winner
Bets are settled on which team will win the quarter in question, usually the first quarter, while the others can also be played live.
- Winning Margin Over/Under
You have to guess whether the margin of victory will be above or below a certain level (e.g. 7.5 points).
- Points Over/Under
You have to guess whether the total points will be above or below a certain level (example: 32.5). A type of betting that can be applied to both total points and individual teams.
- Touchdowns In The Quarter
Betting on whether touchdowns will be scored in a given quarter.
- Field Goal In The Quarter
betting on whether or not field goals will be scored in a given quarter.
- Fumble Sum
You must predict the total number of fumbles by both teams, where a fumble is an action where a player loses possession of the ball and it is recovered by a player of either team.
You must bet on the total number of interceptions that will be made by both teams in the match. An interception occurs when a player from the defending team picks up the ball that has been thrown by a player (almost always the quarterback) from the opposing team.
- Sack Sum
You must guess the total number of sacks made by both teams in the match. The sack is the landing of the quarterback by the opposing team.
- Yard Runs
You must bet on the number of yards rushed, either in total or by the individual team.
- Yard Throwed
You must bet on the number of yards thrown, either in total or by the individual team.
NFL Betting Tips And Tricks
American football is a hyper-tactical sport, where situations can be turned on their head even beyond the value of individual players. Systematically playing the favourite teams is therefore inadvisable, as is giving too much weight to the field factor.
Precisely because of the importance of tactics, teams have very specific characteristics and usually a great defence beats a great attack, although of course there are exceptions to this rule. Two great defences, on the other hand, can paradoxically result in a game with a lot of points, including interceptions and impromptu plays that the attacks are forced to invent.
The composition of formations, even in the less showcase positions (such as offensive line members, who must defend the quarterback), is decisive and can change the value of teams by a lot, even from one game to the next.
NFL Betting Mistakes To Avoid
The main mistake to avoid when betting on the NFL is putting too much weight on the past. Of course, the strongest are always the favourites, but in football even great cycles end because of one game or one injury. Not to mention that careers are very short and with a very accelerated parabola: it goes without saying that it is always more convenient to look for the share of value among the underdogs than to ride on the back of a heavy favourite, deluding oneself that the task is easy as in football or volleyball.
The second most common mistake, and one that should be avoided, is trusting the name of the team. Not that the San Francisco 49ers or the Dallas Cowboys, because they have more fans than anyone else, have a reputation comparable to those of Real Madrid and Barcelona. The 32 NFL teams in the medium term are all on the same level, the traditional ‘big boys’ only exist for merchandising and sponsorship.
NFL Betting Systems
There are no real NFL betting systems, in the sense that there are no NFL-only systems. Martingale (i.e. tying multiple outcomes) as well or error correction, systems that allow you to miss one or more predictions, are common but not exclusive to football. Certainly in football the single bet makes even more sense than in other sports, given the amount of variables involved.
There are also many live betting patterns and the most common is to play the Over/Under a certain number of total points based on the first quarter’s performance, especially when the direction is Over, as NFL games ‘open up’ exponentially.
We’ve listed only the most common NFL football bets, but given the complexity of the sport the combinations and individual situations to bet on are virtually endless, in the various modes: antepost, single game, live.
Of course, the spread doesn’t always reflect the difference in value between the teams, because as soon as the tension subsides the scores ‘open up’ and often increase exponentially.
The main thing to bear in mind, however, is that results in the NFL are never a foregone conclusion, because the league’s primary mission is to seek a competitive balance between the various franchises.